利用2005—2015年安徽省內1162個站點觀測資料簡要分析了短時強降水的時空分布特征，并利用中國氣象局CLDAS（CMA Land Data Assimilation System）近實時降水資料檢驗2012—2015年安徽省WRF（Weather Research and Forecast）模式對短時強降水的預報性能，探討不同空間插值方法、檢驗方法對預報效果的影響,以評估模式預報短時強降水的應用價值和使用注意事項。結果表明：短時強降水主要發生在大別山區和皖南山區；一年中發生次數呈單峰分布，集中于6—8月；日變化呈雙峰狀，強峰為北京時間下午15:00—19:00，弱峰為06:00—09:00，兩個低谷分別為01:00、12:00前后。在兩分類評分TS（Threat Score）檢驗中，各個季節評分均十分低，插值方法對TS評分影響不大。鄰域法FSS評分（Fractions Skill Score）檢驗中，春季FSS評分低，最高僅可達15%，空間窗、時間窗、時間超前或滯后變化對FSS評分的影響不如夏季、秋季明顯；夏季，不考慮時間窗時，單獨的時間超前或滯后不能提高預報準確率；秋季，模式分別滯后1 h或滯后2 h預報結果優于同期預報，而超前1 h或超前2 h預報結果低于同期預報，表明秋季WRF模式對短時強降水的預報有一定滯后性。
Based on the hourly rainfall data of 1162 stations in Anhui from 2005 to 2015, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of shortterm heavy rains are analyzed. The results show that shortterm heavy rainfall happens mainly in Tapieh Mountains and Wannan Mountains. The number of shortterm heavy rains changes in a singlepeak pattern annually, concentrated in June to August, and from October to next March, and shortterm heavy rainfall hardly happens. The diurnal change exhibits a doublepeak pattern: its stronger peak appearing from 15:00 to 19:00, and the weaker peak appearing from 06:00 to 09:00, while the two valleys around 01:00 and 12:00, respectively. Also, the capability of forecasting shortterm heavy rainfall based on the WRF model is estimated in different interpolation and assessment methods. The Threat Scores (TS), calculated in different interpolation methods, are all under 2%, and there is little difference among them. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS), a neighborhoodbased verification measure, is also used to assess the skill of forecast. The study shows that FSS varies with seasons, the space and time windows, and time bias. FSS in spring is the lowest, under 15%; it is more faintly affected by time bias, spatial and temporal neighborhoods than those in summer and autumn. In summer, the FSS curves, without temporal neighborhoods, are much similar, and obviously below those with temporal neighborhoods. In autumn, the model FSS with 1 to 2 hours later is higher than synchronous FSS, while FSS with 1 to 2 hours ahead is lower, which also happens in spring, but not so clear.