通過對上海地區1998—2009年4—9月各類強對流天氣的統計分析，選取42個對流參數及其時間變量，采用逐步回歸方法建立了針對各類強對流天氣的0～12 h潛勢預報方程。在此基礎上，提出了基于關鍵對流參數進行分級的強對流潛勢預報方法，選取K〖WTBZ〗指數、SI〖WTBZ〗指數、PWV〖WTBZ〗（大氣可降水含量）指數和θsedif85〖WTBZ〗（500 hPa和850 hPa假相當位溫差）等反映大氣熱力和水汽條件的關鍵對流參數，根據對流分布情況將各對流參數分別分為3個等級，并分級建立了針對不同強對流天氣的潛勢預報方程。與未分級方程對比表明：基于關鍵對流參數分級的預報方程對雷雨大風、強雷電和所有對流等預報效果上有明顯提升，采用如下組合評分更佳：雷雨大風的預報采用SI〖WTBZ〗分類方程，強雷電和所有對流采用PWV〖WTBZ〗分類方程。將基于關鍵對流參數分級的強對流潛勢預報方法在數值預報模式中進行了業務應用，取得了較好效果。
Through the statistical analysis of different types of severe convective weather from April to September from 1998 to 2009 in Shanghai, a stepwise regression method is used to develop 0 to 12 hour potential forecast equations for all types of severe convective weather by using 42 convection parameters and their time variation. A new approach to convective potential forecasting based on the classification of four key convective parameters is designed. The key convective parameters are K index, SI, PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) and θsedif85 (difference between 500 and 850 hPa in pseudo equivalent temperature), which depict the atmospheric thermal and water vapor conditions, respectively. According to the distributions of different types of convection, these four convective parameters are classified into 3 levels, and convective potential forecast equations are developed for each level, respectively. In comparison with the original equations, the forecast equations based on classified convective parameters are with dramatic increasing validity in the forecasting of thunderstorms, high winds, severe thunders and all types of convective weather. In addition, better performance would be granted with the following combinations: the classified SIbased equations for forecasting thunderstorms, classified PWVbased equations for forecasting severe thunder cases and all types of convective weather. The optimal combination method of severe convective potential forecasting based on the classification of key convection parameters has been used in routine application of numerical weather prediction model outputs.